Event-study prior for 'congress_disclosure' claims points bullish (hit rate 0.62). Congress: 4 buys / 0 sells → bullish. Technicals (yahoo-finance): last 1229.6949, RSI 67.7952, uptrend → bullish. Fundamentals (SEC FY2025): revenue growth 0.447, margin 0.3167 → bullish. Blended: bullish (confidence 0.667).
Weight answers "how much should this filing matter?" Direction confidence answers "which way, and how sure?" Averaging them would hide exactly the disagreement you need to see.
| Input | Provenance | Pull on signal |
|---|---|---|
| Congress flow: 4 buys / 0 sells (4 recent trades in LLY) STOCK Act filings, official clerk records · 30% of blend | REAL | + direction |
| Technicals: last close 1229.6949, RSI 68, trend uptrend yahoo-finance price data · 10% of blend | REAL | + direction |
| Event-study prior for "congress_disclosure": hit rate 0.62, moderate magnitude Hand-seeded prior, not yet measured · 55% of blend | ESTIMATE | + direction (discounted) |
Bracket sums are shown as filed ranges, never point estimates. Paper-filed PTRs that can't be parsed are skipped, not guessed. · Read the official source document →
The adversarial desk review arrives in Milestone 3. Future dockets will publish what was challenged before publication, what the desk conceded, and what it defended. Until then this section stays honestly empty rather than invented.
An opposite filing by the same member in this name, an amendment from the clerk, or the measured event study coming back flat for this filing profile. If any of those land, this docket gets amended in place · with the change logged, not overwritten.
This is a probabilistic read on a public filing, not advice. The 67% means we expect the direction call to be wrong about 33% of the time.